Sponsors

Google Search

  • Google Search
    Google

    WWW
    softwaresafari.typepad.com
My Photo
Blog powered by TypePad

Bloglines Feedblitz

  • Technorati
  • FeedBlitz - Would You Like to Get These Posts Via Email?

    Enter your Email


    Powered by FeedBlitz

  • Bloglines

Where Have the Good Times Gone? Where are the IPOs?

                   Market Silence: The Absence of IPO Hype

VentureSource, a part of Dow Jones, Inc., reported that IPO activity is way off this year. There were only six tech IPOs in the first quarter of this year and none to date in the second. That's off from 37 for the same period last year. 21 firms have withdrawn their planned IPOs including a local Chicago favorite, Initiate Systems.

Merger and acquisition activity is also down from 293 deals the first two quarters of last year to 142 this year.

Needless to say, venture capitalists are not happy. Instead of exiting out of their investments (hopefully, at a huge profit), these VCs will likely have to pour in more capital to keep their investments liquid and growing. Firms like NetSuite should be thankful that they completed their IPO last year as the market has turned decidedly bearish since then.

From an analyst view, it's been a really quiet last six months. The hype leading up to an IPO tends to create an overabundance of press, blog chatter and other noise that drowns out the more interesting developments other firms are announcing during the same time frame. Personally, I like the more peaceful time.

T-Mobile Cuts Loose Subscriber For Using Their Service

                                 Is Free-Roaming Truly Free?

            Can You Terminate a Customer Just For Using Your Product?

The Chicago Tribune has a consumer problem solving column called "What's Your Problem?". Today, they published the story of a six-year T-Mobile customer who was informed that one of her family's three T-Mobile phone numbers was being terminated.

The issue apparently is that one of the phones is being used by a 19-year old college daughter who uses 250 or less minutes per month in an out-of-town college. The daughter's phone number was highlighted by T-Mobile's "Excessive Roaming Reduction Team" and the company determined that her number was no longer profitable. This is interesting as the family's plan includes free roaming.

As a road warrior, I have many, many months where I exceed 250 roaming minutes per month and T-Mobile has not cancelled my account (yet). Should I be concerned?

While T-Mobile offered to waive early termination fees against the family, the family and the Tribune had no real success with T-Mobile who pretty much stuck with their decision. As for the family, they had to pay new activation fees to move their business to AT&T. The family severed their ties with T-Mobile.

Who wins in this deal? Maybe AT&T did but no one else did. T-Mobile lost three customers and caught a pile of bad PR out the mess. The fact that T-Mobile was dealing with one college student in a family didn't seem to enter their decision-making consciousness.

Cell phones carriers are mystified why "Churn" is so high in their sector. Stories like this are why consumers have so little love for them. Some of these firms have "Customer Retention" workers but obviously they're overworked, underutilized or ineffective as too many people are none to happy with the customer service they receive. Incidentally, this story was page 1 of the Metro section and was continued with a big color photo on page 4. Sure, some companies believe that any PR is good PR but this story just encourages people to switch carriers.

If I ran a competing cell carrier, I'd contact the Tribune today and offer this family a trio of phones and a year's free service just to show that they are the carrier who tries to understand its customers and is a carrier that honors free-roaming contract clauses. The cost of that freebie would maybe carry a retail cost of $1-2000 but the print space it would generate would be worth 10X that. Moreover, reprints of that article could be plastered all over their retail outlets to help prospective customers know why they should do business with someone other than T-Mobile. If I were T-Mobile, I'd buy a page of advertising and try to explain to Tribune readers why they make the decisions they do (if that's even possible).

Bad business decisions happen but good companies do something to prevent their frequency and PR damage. T-Mobile has some work to do here.

I wonder if the Illinois Public Utility Commission and States Attorney office read this article?

iPhone Only Costs $173?

              What About Vinnie's iPhone ROI Calculations?

Some time back, my colleague, Vinnie of the Deal Architect blog, wrote a piece on the economics of owning an iPhone. The numbers were staggering and he wasn't bashful when it came to suggesting that Apple use its market power and sourcing expertise to get both the cost of the product and the carrier choice to be more economical to buyers.

Well, according to an Infoworld article, (see "Why is the New 3g iPhone So Cheap?"), the firm iSuppli has calculated the cost of the new iPhone to only be $173. Maybe Apple read Vinnie's earlier post, because they dramatically cut the cost of this unit.

The real question remains though: When will consumers see a concerted reduction in the total cost of ownership (TCO) for this device? Not soon. ATT is still the exclusive US provider of the phone service according to a press release they issued on 6/9/2008. They still require a 2-year plan. The only concession that has been made of late to consumers is the abandonment of a revenue sharing arrangement between ATT and Apple.

Until the phone is availabe on other carriers, does not require a long-term plan and shows a reduction in all of the add-on costs levied by the carriers (e.g., text messaging fees, web access fees, etc. on top of the regular plan fees), it's still not much of a bargain. Let's hope the situation improves before the 4g phone arrives....

Unintended Consequences of Online Transactions

Think Before You Buy (Buyers) -

Think Before You Sell Customer Data (Vendors)

I read two disturbing articles this week about how companies are (mis)using customer data.

In one piece (see "Siemens Seeks Protection For Corporate Travel Data", 6/16/2008, Business Travel News), a Siemens executive was surprised to learn during a RFP process for hotel rooms that 'nonpreferred hoteliers contacted Siemens commodity specialists to ask about gaining more of their business armed with the number of room nights Siemens booked in the hotels' zip code."

In particular, this executive was concerned that a third party had and was selling this information and this information could be used by competitors and others to gain special inside information. For example, with the right programs and analysis, a competitor could detect changes in travel patterns that could tip off competitors to: potential acquisitions, potential new client acquisitions, potential sales, etc. Worse, competitors should not know the movements of their employees.

While the legality of these data sales is unknown, the fact remains that information about what your employees buy, sell, the prescriptions they take, the insurance claims they file and the even the web sites they surf can be bought and sold by third parties and your firm might not be able to do anything about it if it even knew it was occurring.

Siemens, understandably, wants the firms selling this information to aggregate it with other firms but it may not succeed in getting this done.

In another article in BusinessWeek (see "Your Lifestyle May Hurt Your Credit", June 30, 2008), Jessica Silver-Greenberg wrote about an FTC case against credit card issuer CompuCredit. The gist of the article discusses how credit scoring activities are using factors other than payment history to raise/lower your credit scores. Specifically, credit card issuers may be looking at what you buy (i.e., buying behavior patterns).

The FTC is investigating whether firms are cutting credit lines to people who frequent marriage counselors, massage parlors and other establishments.  Boy, cash is looking better and better these days.

At the heart of both situations is the unintended consequence or misuse of transaction data. When businesses sell their customer lists (a la mailing lists), they may do so to monetize an asset they own but they also destroy the relationship and confidence customers have with them. Once this list is sold, it can be re-sold, modified, etc. through numerous other information brokers and the original customer is bombarded with junk mail, solicitations, etc. If you really don't give a damn about your customers, then go ahead and sell their contact data.

If you really don't care about your customers, then sell their transaction data. Tell the world who rented that risque video, who eats out every night of the week, who consistently overpaid for their automobiles, who clips coupons, who bought a pregnancy test, who browsed for adoption sites online, etc.

We do not have even the appearance of privacy rights in the digital world and we won't until someone or some firm is heinously violated by some neer-do-well who uses this information that should have remained private all along.

Ethically, businesses must ask themselves if they'd want their data sold to others the way the do. If ethics always trumped the pursuit of cash, we wouldn't have this problem. We've got a privacy trainwreck underway and, as a consumer, I can't wait to see someone sue the living daylights out of a firm that betrayed their confidence.

Until then...

The Wide, Wild World of ERP

The (Re-) Ascendancy of ERP

Or

My Wasn’t Last Week Interesting

Last week, ERP solutions really made the news. If Apple’s 3g iPhone wasn’t announced, there would be no news but ERP news.

Let’s recap:

NetSuite has come out strongly as a full-fledged ERP Suite provider with their Manufacturing announcement. I particularly liked this quote from a NetSuite press release:

“NetSuite for Manufacturers, which includes new functionality for Assembly, Work Order and Bill of Materials, takes aim at SAP’s core market and seeks to exploit the prolonged delay of SAP’s Business ByDesign product roll-out, providing mid-sized manufacturers with an integrated on-demand solution they can put to work today.”

What’s key to this announcement is that here is a SaaS (software as a service) offering that offers back office, front office, warehouse, distribution and now manufacturing functionality in areas such as: Bill of Materials, Demand-based Inventory Replenishment, Assembly Management and Work Order functionality. NetSuite partners will provide specific capabilities delivered via NetSuite’s NS-BOS architecture. Specifically, Omnify Software will provide Product Lifecycle Management. Configure One supports highly configurable or customized product manufacturers. SuiteCommerce will provide product configuration technology. Lastly, SPS Commerce provides EDI and B2B integration services.

What was so eerie about these announcements was that they came one day after I did a press interview with Mergermarket USA. During that interview I stressed how firms like salesforce.com or NetSuite could benefit from organic or inorganic product line growth. Good to know the old crystal ball is still working.

Speaking of Salesforce, one of the stars of their Force.com road shows has been the re-born CODA software. CODA, recently acquired by Unit 4/Agresso, has developed a new product line, Coda 2go. Coda 2go is built off the Force.com architecture. We recently prepared a research report on this product line and just got it through fact-checks this weekend. You can check it out at www.vitalanalysis.com .

Last week, our friend Judith Rothrock hosted another JRocket Marketing, Grape Escape event. Three major application software vendors presented at the event along with a key user executive from each firm. Detailed write-ups on each will be prepared this week and posted on the Vital Analysis site soon.

Agresso of North America made a couple of announcements at the event. First, the company continues to close ever larger deals and take them away from larger competitors. A $1.5 million deal was announced at the event.

Agresso also announced the availability of its new Talent Management solution. The core of this system originated via an acquisition Unit 4/Agresso made last year (i.e., Nextlearn). This product extension is highly compatible with Agresso’s strategy of serving people based verticals (e.g., professional services).

SYSPRO reported a big competitive victory. In their situation, they told of how a prior customer, Novatek, switched from SYSPRO to SAP Business One/Fourth Shift solution only to switch back to SYSPRO.

SYSPRO also demonstrated the financial impact of their solutions when a customer of theirs attributed a 15% improvement to their bottom line after the SYSPRO solution was installed.

Meridian Systems, a project-based solutions provider and the only non-ERP vendor at the Grape Escape, had some interesting news as well. First, the company landed a major new partnership with DMJN H&N, an AECOM company. DMJN H&N is one the world’s largest design and construction project management firms.

Meridian

also announced new product enhancements for Proliance product that provide greater integration to Microsoft Outlook. Lastly,

Meridian

closed several new deals with groups like the Illinois Tollway, an organization that gets my money almost every day.

As stated before new reports are coming out for all three of these firms. Stay tuned.

AAACK!!??? Vinnie's Blog a Top 25 Blog?

                         Zoli Makes the Industry Standard List, too!

Working with the Enterprise Irregulars has been a pleasure the last year or so. I get to hang with ssome pretty bright folks. I just saw today's Industry Standard newsletter and saw their announcement of their Top 25 Tech blogs. My congrats to colleague and former business partner/arch enemy Vinnie Mirchandani for making the list.

Vinnie_blog_top_25

Zoli was number 6 on the same list. Congrats!

November 1 Deadline - FTC's Red Flag Program

   Now You Have to Check for Terrorists, Identity Thieves & Criminals

The GRC (governance, regulation and compliance) sector has another set of requirements to propagate to businesses small and large. On November 1, 2008, businesses must comply with a new Federal Trade Commission regulation to check customers and suppliers against databases of known Internet criminals.

This comes on top of US Treasury requirements to compare customer lists against those of known terrorists. Failing to comply with these screening activities could result in jail time and penalties.

Decelerating ByDesign

                          The Caution Behind Business ByDesign

Coming into SAP's Sapphire conference this week, a number of bloggers, tech analysts and Wall Street researchers were looking for answers around recent decisions on SAP's Business ByDesign product line. Business ByDesign is a relatively new offering from SAP and represents a huge investment by SAP in the Software as a Service (SaaS) space. During a recent earnings call, SAP executives indicated a more cautious approach to the continuing rollout of this product line.

After three meetings today with senior SAP executives, there is now more clarity around SAP's recent moves. We spoke with Henning Kagermann (outgoing CEO), Leo Apotheker (incoming CEO) and others. What we learned was:

  • The product is not performing to the cost expectations the company had set for it and, as such, was not operating at the level of TCO (total cost of ownership) that the firm needed for it to be a profitable solution. A high TCO is not something investors or Wall Street would appreciate.
  • The root cause of the higher than expected TCO was apparently related to two major items. First, the version of NetWeaver (SAP's development and execution software stack) being used by the Business ByDesign solutions is out of date and needs to be updated to version 7.1 once it's completed. When that's accomplished, the solution should run more cost effectively.  Second, the upgrade process (e.g., the upgrade from Version 1.0 to 1.1) turns out to need more automation so that fewer errors are made and human intervention is reduced. Human intervention triggers added costs and introduces potential errors. This creates quality and cost problems.

SAP executives admitted that their new on-demand solution encountered challenges the company had previously never encountered. First, SaaS was an entirely new space. Second, the company couldn't fully 'leverage their 35 year experience' in application software as these customers were not the typical SAP customer and the solution would be used differently than its prior on-premise solutions. One SAP executive said they "thought they knew this market" but that wasn't exactly true. Lastly, their development staff was caught by surprise as the they did not have the same level of control with this product as they have had with other product lines.

Business ByDesign has been an expensive development exercise for SAP. One source indicated some 2000 persons were involved in the creation of the product. While further development efforts are being scaled back, this has more to do with a planned development deceleration and a need to wait for the NetWeaver architecture to be implemented. In creating the product, one executive commented that the company made hundreds or thousands of assumptions (e.g., how quickly customer deals would occur, what response rate is needed for acceptable performance, the targeted TCO, etc.) and some of these assumptions now require a rethink.

Bottom line for Business ByDemand is that:

  • sales will continue in six countries: France, US, UK, China, Germany and India but not beyond these for now
  • the company will continue to focus its TCO reduction efforts on cutting the cost of hot-patching, hosting, upgrading and on-going operations. Moving their hosting centers to low-cost countries (for a labor arbitrage) is not being considered for now.
  • the $149/user cost figure is being held. TCO will be reduced while customer cost will not be increased.
  • adjustments by SAP should take 12-18 months to complete

More on SAP Earnings / Business ByDesign

          What Others Are Saying / Will Say…

I’ve been reviewing a number of pieces re: SAP’s recent earnings and their Business ByDesign product line. I found this comment by Patrick Walraven’s of JMP Securities to be particularly jarring:

“On a separate note, our due diligence suggests that SAP's new Business ByDesign solution may have been originally built in a number of silos rather than with a single data model. We believe this unfortunate engineering decision may help explain the magnitude of SAP's investment in the Business ByDesign product in 2007 and 2008. Our due diligence suggests that SAP may have a major update to Business ByDesign later this year to attempt to address these issues.”

On the eve of SAPPHIRE, issues like this reflect poorly on SAP. They suggest that:

-          SAP may have assumed that the SMB SaaS market is very similar to other markets they’ve played in before. That assumption is faulty and may have lured them into making a series of bad decisions re: Business ByDesign architecture, go-to-market strategies, pricing and more

-          SAP was overly cocky and misestimated the challenges, both technical and sales, in successfully creating a product for a market in which they had no prior experience.

Right now, I am reminded of the tortured merger of the Southern Pacific and Union Pacific railroads. Fortune magazine had this insightful comment in a piece they did to examine why the merger led to the biggest rail congestion problem the U.S. ever faced. They said:

It is a virtual certainty that Union Pacific will solve its operating problems--probably within the year. The same pride and arrogance that got it into trouble will eventually get it out.” (see: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1998/03/30/240141/index.htm )

   

Pride and arrogance might be two cultural concepts that SAP may want to look at. The Union Pacific (UP) lesson is interesting as the solution for the UP may be the same solution SAP will need to embrace.

Next week should be interesting….

SAP - Earnings, Competition & Business ByDesign

                       SAP - A Rethink Just Before Sapphire

For the last few weeks, I've heard unpleasant rumors about SAP. Because I don't spread rumors, I haven't helped the spread of same. However, the recent earnings report raised a number of concerns just prior to next week's SAPPHIRE conference.

This bombshell was in the investor documents provided to shareholders today:

"Small and Midsize Enterprises and SAP Business ByDesign
SAP’s small and midsize enterprise (SME) business continued to perform well in the first quarter of 2008 as the Company added more than 1,570 new SME customers (excluding customers from Business Objects) in the quarter, representing a 28% increase compared to the first quarter of 2007. A principal component of the SME strategy is SAP’s breakthrough innovative new solution, SAP Business ByDesign. Since last September’s announcement of SAP Business ByDesign, the Company has been working closely with early customers and partners to validate and fine-tune the solution. As a result of this process, SAP has elected to modify the rollout strategy for SAP Business ByDesign to ensure a more focused and controlled ramp-up process. The new rollout strategy includes the following:

  • For 2008, go-to-market efforts for SAP Business ByDesign will focus on six countries, where all the current productive early customers are based and which represent a large amount of the worldwide volume market opportunity. Additional country rollouts will be executed in 2009.
  • It is expected to take around 12 months to 18 months longer than the original 2010 target to reach the SAP Business ByDesign $1 billion revenue and 10,000 customer potential.
  • However, the Company will use SAP Business ByDesign innovations and technologies for the existing solutions and this will contribute significantly to the overall revenues of SAP in 2010.
  • Also, the Company will engage with significantly less than 1,000 customers in 2008.

In light of the modified rollout strategy, SAP will reduce its accelerated investments around SAP Business ByDesign in 2008 by approximately €100 million, which is expected to result in additional operating margin expansion in 2008 as noted in the “Business Outlook” section of this release. Furthermore, beginning in 2009 there will be no further accelerated investments. The expected expenses related to SAP Business ByDesign will be funded out of SAP’s normal operational business.

SAP maintains its full confidence in the product, the market opportunity and the associated business model of SAP Business ByDesign, as the Company continues to move toward volume readiness in 2008. " (Source: http://www.sap.com/about/investor/press.epx?pressID=9406)

SAP Business ByDesign has consistently been the most discussed product line within the Enterprise Irregulars whenever SAP products are discussed. Significant issues have been raised previously about:

  • the channel program needed to sell this product. Was this channel economically attractive to providers?
  • the ability to sell this product line. Do partners or SAP have the materials, collateral, training, etc. to effectively identify prospects and close deals? Can these be done profitably?
  • the 50-100 customer per blade limitation
  • the long-term strategy for the product. Would Business ByDesign become the future product platform for SAP? Would this eventually replace other product lines?

While Business ByDesign is a robust solution that SAP had consistently maintained would remain a SMB product, their announcement today would imply that parts of the solution may be utilized in other SAP products.

Behind these changes involving Business ByDesign are some hard economic facts:

  • the effect of the falling dollar vis-a-vis the Euro has adversely affected SAP's earnings
  • a review of their headcount showed that the company added a lot of positions in their North American operations. Specifically, the addition of Business Objects personnel has added materially to their ranks. Whether by design (no pun intended) or not, the company has grown the ranks of its Sales & Marketing, General & Administrative and Infrastructure headcount by 20-30%. (see attached graphic or follow link to full SAP presentation: http://www.sap.com/about/investor/reports/quarterlyreport/2008/pdf/Q1_2008_E_final2.pdf)Sap_headcount   

The added effect of more personnel, slower sales of Business ByDesign and other factors caused total revenue to go up 14% while operating expenses increased 22%.

Going into SAPPHIRE, SAP management should expect questions such as:

  • Will SAP embark on layoffs, especially in North American non-client facing personnel?
  • What progress has SAP made in developing its Business ByDesign channel program?
  • Has SAP improved the economics for channel partners for its Business ByDesign product?
  • Will SAP share with us details involving the technical difficulties they are examining in the Business ByDesign product line?

On balance, the bulk of the earnings announcement was positive but not surprising. The company posted continued growth and new customer gains. The company continued to gain market share. However, the difficulties with Business ByDesign should cause investors to question whether this company can effectively take the SMB space as confidently as they have pursued large enterprises.

For those who caught Marc Benioff and Hasso Plattner at the Churchill event, Marc teased Dr. Plattner about building SAP on the Force.com platform. Today, that might look like a better on-demand/SaaS strategy afterall.